Orange Monthly Report: Making Macro Great Again
The rules of the global trade system are up for debate, and we're watching the largest re-wiring of the economic order since leaving the gold standard in 1971.
Note: The monthly report below is available to Checkonchain Orange members.
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Dear Orange Members,
I can’t recall a time where I have had to re-listen, re-read, and re-think as many ideas as I have this month.
We are living through one of the most interesting macro-economic moments in several decades, and certainly the most dynamic in my lifetime. There is simultaneously so much to write about, and yet so many ideas which are interconnected and intertwined, that prying them apart has been no easy feat.
This months Orange report is a special one, and I’ve used it as an opportunity to consolidate a great many macro ideas for where I see the world heading.
I have distilled countless pages of notes, and drawn inspiration from numerous analysts and thinkers that I highly respect and use as part of my process. My goal was to bring lots of big ideas together, and to paint a picture of likely outcomes given the chaotic events of the last month.
For April, our report is titled Making Macro Great Again, and covers the following topics:
An assessment of the Trump 2.0 policy roll-out.
Potential risks coming out of the tariff tantrum.
Distilled thoughts surrounding the so called Mar-a-lago Accord.
A timeline of signposts related to the End of US Exceptionalism.
Thinking through capital rotation in response to a changing order.
Expectations for assets as we shift further into a multi-polar world.
The case for neutral reserve assets like Gold and Bitcoin.
You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.
