🟠 Orange Monthly Report: Financial Alchemy
Bitcoin Treasury Companies are experimenting with financial alchemy, and we require an updated framework to properly think through the sustainability & longevity of this trend. Not all is as it seems.
Note: The monthly report below is available for Checkonchain Orange members.
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Dear Orange Members,
We’re entering the stage of this cycle where Bitcoin Treasury Companies are attempting financial alchemy, seeking to accumulate Bitcoin holdings via the Strategy playbook. This is now a major theme, and full analysis of the trend requires a deep appreciation of the nuances associated with mNAV premiums, and market structure surrounding these stocks.
Bitcoin itself is trading in a very powerful and stable stair-stepping price pattern, which certainly lends itself to a continuation of the trend. However, many Treasury Company stocks have been cut in half, despite BTC trading just 4% off the all-time-high.
For June, our report is titled Financial Alchemy, and covers the following topics:
Detailed analysis of the passive and aggressive spot bids in the market.
Breakdown of the Pareto principle at play within Treasury Company stocks.
Analysis of the magnitude of fresh capital brought in by Treasury Company bids.
Comparison between market leader Strategy, and the rest.
Deep dive into expectations and thinking around the sustainability and longevity of the Treasury Company trend.
Studies showing where I think we are positioned within the Bitcoin cycle.
A review of Long-Term Holder metrics, and the impact on spot prices.
Review and update of my price expectations and odds for Bitcoin in 2025.
You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.