Orange Monthly Report: Corrections & Capital Unwinds
Spot Bitcoin markets continue to face headwinds, as trade volumes compress, and upside momentum wanes. Strangely, derivatives leverage is building, which heightens the risk of further de-leveraging.
Note: The monthly report below is available to Checkonchain Orange members.
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Dear Orange Members,
The first quarter of 2025 has not disappointed…assuming your measure of success involves choppy and chaotic market conditions.
When I sat down to prepare this months report, I started off my process by reviewing each of the slides and topics we have covered in previous Orange letters. My goal was to assess how the market landscape has evolved over the last two quarters, but also to evaluate where my thinking was at the time, and how it has changed since.
We have certainly experienced a choppy Q1, the US now has a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, The US dollar is weaker, and President Trump is throwing around intra-day tariffs like they are going out of style. I even reminded myself of a view I had as far back as June last year, noting that a memetic top signal would be when GameStop and Bitcoin miners start ‘pulling a Saylor’…and here we are.
2025 is a strange year already.
For March, our report is titled Corrections and Capital Unwinds, and covers the following topics:
An overview of relative YTD performance for Bitcoin, Gold, and Equity markets.
An update on my views related to the ‘Saylorisation’ of corporate balance sheets.
Assessment of the ETF markets, and the first major structural shift we’ve seen since launch.
How the ETFs and futures are being affected by the cash & carry trade.
Measures of trade activity which are currently moving in the wrong direction.
A status update on the leverage building up in derivative markets.
My current assessment of the correction, and whether it has ‘bear market’ characteristics.
My updated price expectations on both the downside and the upside.
You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.
