Orange Monthly Report: Bitcoin On The Balance Sheet
Corporations putting Bitcoin on the balance sheet is now a major trend, and this month, I analyse the relative value of Bitcoin Treasury Companies, and present my case for estimated cycle top prices.
Note: The monthly report below is available for Checkonchain Orange members.
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Dear Orange Members,
The idea of corporations actively putting Bitcoin on their balance sheet was pioneered by Michael Saylor via Strategy in 2020, and many expected it to take off in that cycle. Whilst it took longer than many expected, in 2025, that trend appears to be growing serious legs.
Bitcoin Treasury Companies (BTCs) are emerging as a new and major structural bid for Bitcoin, creating a new avenue for investor capital to get exposure. These publicly traded companies also require a new set of metrics, ideas, and ways of thinking to properly evaluate.
I can also make the argument that these companies may act as rocket fuel for the Bitcoin price, however we must balance this by recognising that demand does not go on forever. At some point, this bull market will hit exhaustion, and we need to be prepared to look beyond the narratives, and identify when things are getting red-hot.
For May, our report is titled Bitcoin on the Balance Sheet, and covers the following topics:
Analysis of the various publicly traded Bitcoin Treasury Companies.
Breakdown of new metrics for thinking about relative valuations.
A comparison of Strategy to smaller up-and-comers.
Deeper analysis into Strategy related metrics and performance.
Charting out prior ‘Euphoria Zones’ and bull market peaks.
Thinking through what a final stage bull rally may look like.
Establishing key price targets for potential cyclical tops.
My assessment of probabilities for prices both on upside and downside.
You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.