🟠Orange Monthly: Challenging My Base Case
There's a chorus of bears out there, & they all have a very confident target, which is much lower than mine. In this month's Orange report, I challenge my bear thesis, just in case the bears are right
Dear Orange Members,
If the 4yr cycle advocates are correct, the next quarter is likely to be a rough one, and there is no shortage of bear flags being drawn to illustrate it.
Over the last few months, I have fleshed out my bear case thesis, and why I do not believe the classic 4yr cycle compass is going to be more of a hindrance than a help in this bear. However, I am not naive enough to pretend I can tell the future, so it’s important to challenge my own bias, and stress test my thesis against the consensus bear case.
This month’s Orange report is titled Challenging My Base Case, and is an exploration of the macro factors which may drive another leg down, and how it stacks up relative to prior bear cycles.
I discuss the consensus bear case which I see plastered across my news feed, and analyse how the metrics I track would respond given any sell-off event that takes Bitcoin under the prevailing $60k low.
Orange Members will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.
Note: This monthly report & upcoming conference call is exclusive to Checkonchain Orange subscribers - which is our upper-tier plan within Substack.
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