Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

🟠 Orange Monthly: Approaching The End Zone

This month's Orange report presents the latest assessment of our proximity in both price and duration to what we can hopefully call...the end of this bear market.

James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)
Jul 02, 2026
∙ Paid

Dear Orange Members,

The last month has been a chaotic one for the Bitcoin market, with prices setting a marginally lower low at $58k, and with a significant break-down in Strategy’s preferred and common stock prices.

These are the dynamics one would expect to see in a late stage bear, and despite the apparent headwinds, downside momentum seems to still be waning.

In this month’s Orange report, I present a set of models and ideas to reason about what this late stage of the bear may look like. I also provide an assessment of the position Strategy is in, and reflect on their latest updated framework for how they plan to manage their balance sheet.

Orange Members will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.


Note: This monthly report & upcoming conference call is exclusive to Checkonchain Orange subscribers - which is our upper-tier plan within Substack.

If you would like to learn more about Orange, or access a single monthly report + conference call recording, please click the button below.

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