Orange Member Letter - January 2025
This months letter covers the widening divergence between Bitcoin and crypto, my bull and bear case for current market conditions, key price levels I am watching, and my high level macro assessment.
Dear Orange Members,
Bitcoin has opened 2025 remarkably strong, and alongside gold, is ahead of even the leading equities in the Magnificent 7. We have a new administration in the US, and there is a notable tension between the Treasury and the Fed, whilst the bond vigilantes attempt to call time on deficit spending.
As the world changes rapidly around us, I think it is increasingly important to think in scenarios and probabilities, and this months letter focuses on how these divergences can create opportunities for us as Bitcoiners.
For January, our report titled Divergences and Opportunities covers the following topics:
My assessment of key macro market forces.
The return of the bond vigilantes.
Bitcoin’s performance relative to the Magnificent 7 equities.
The widening divergence between Bitcoin and crypto.
Quantifying the mediocre performance of the altcoin complex this cycle.
The explosive growth of stablecoin supplies since November.
Key pricing levels and thresholds I am watching for bull and bear cases.
My framework for thinking about drawdowns in a modern Bitcoin cycle.
Analysis of the topping cloud, and the probabilities I assign to higher prices.
You will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly call below.
