One Day, Satoshi's Coins Will Move
Given enough time, quantum computing, or some other technological breakthrough will eventually crack the cryptography which secures Satoshi's coins...we need to think about how we handle this.
G’day Folks,
The quantum computing threat is one of the biggest pieces of legitimate FUD for Bitcoin, and it is a topic which has rightfully received more discussion of late.
Many subscribers have asked me to cover this topic, and I have had this piece sitting in my drafts folder for too many months now, slowly adding research to it over time.
Given the complexity of the topic at hand, it has taken me a while to fully consolidate my own thoughts, and to distil how I wanted to tackle the quantum problem. Even then, I strongly suspect this will only be my first piece of this subject, and my thoughts are likely to evolve as the research and debate progresses in the months ahead.
At some stage in the future, Satoshi’s approximately 1.1M BTC will move, or at least ‘change state’, and there are three primary ways this can happen;
Satoshi (or their descendants) spend them.
Quantum (or some other novel) computing advances enough to crack the cryptography to steal them.
The Bitcoin network implements a consensus code change which burns them.
Importantly, Satoshi’s coins are not the only ones at risk, and there are other attack vectors such as many lost coins, coins held in re-used addresses, and sniping transactions in the mempool which can affect all of us.
In this piece, I want to share my current thinking around the quantum computing subject, specifically focusing on topics related to the vulnerable supply:
My current understanding of the various quantum attack vectors and threats.
The number of coins which are likely to be vulnerable to a quantum attack.
The risk of address re-use, particularly amongst large custodians and exchanges.
My opinion on how I think the Bitcoin network should handle these ‘at-risk’ coins.
The quantum computing threat is anything but a simple topic, however I also believe there is a relatively pragmatic way to break the problem down into bite sized pieces.
By the end of this piece, I hope readers will have a much clearer view on the risks quantum computing poses to Bitcoin, and be able to better reason about the next steps.
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