On The Hook

Bitcoin tags a new ATH of $125.8k, supported by a massive influx of spot and ETF demand. The price is now above the largest IBIT options call wall, and a lot of options sellers are now on the hook.

G’day Folks,

Happy all-time-highs for those who celebrate!

Bitcoin has just tagged a market cap of $2.5 Trillion, and set a new price high of $125.8k. The last time Bitcoin reached a similar altitude of $124k, it was swiftly beaten back down by a nasty red candle, sending us back to where we came from.

A key difference between this ATH break, and the last in mid-Aug, is that this time we’re supported by fairly robust demand coming from both spot and ETF markets.

Over $3.2B flowed into the ETFs last week, and spot markets experienced their first net buy-side bias of $80M/day. This comes after spot trading seeing a net sell-side bias -$150M+ since April. If we’re lucky, this influx of demand has serious staying power, and the correction over the last month helped recharge the market’s batteries.

Live Chart

As we move into price discovery, there are four key components of the Bitcoin market which I am keeping a close eye on, as they will be the central drivers of both investor narratives, but also the supply and demand balance that underpins them:

• The strength of demand coming from the ETFs.

• The impact of IBIT options as price rises above the massive $123k call wall.

• Sell-side pressure coming from existing holders.

• Whether Treasury Companies can restart their accumulation engines.

Today’s post will be an assessment of all four sectors, seeking to establish a read on the health of this rally, and if there are any major shifts coming from these four categories in the near term.

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📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

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