Momentum Sprouts
Like the April weather in London, it's still wet, it's still cold, and it's still dark...but each day now feels marginally less miserable than the last.
G’day Folks,
Very rarely does the absolute value of a metric matter as much as its rate of change.
Both the financial media, and the twitterazzi love quoting some magic metric that has hit some special new level that explains everything that happened that day. In my experience, what actually matters is how quickly it got there, and whether it is in the process of speeding up, or slowing down.
Late stage bear markets feel like they just drag on…and on…and on….
The monthly chart is red, the weekly chart is red, and the daily chart is red.
However, every day that the gears on this pain-factory grind forwards, the capitulation process works its way through more and more of the folks that only destiny knows will ultimately sell the cycle bottom in disgust.
What remains at the end of this gruelling process, is a hardened holder-base of tenured HODLers, who know exactly what they own, and why they own it.lllllll
The headlines continue to say that Bitcoin is in a deep bear market, with many pundits expecting it has much further to go. The absolute values which measure this bear market, are certainly quite bearish.
What really matters, is the rate of change, and to my eye it is starting to tell a different story.
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