It's 2019...Again
The similarities between the 2019 Bitcoin peak, and today are striking, although the differences are even more fascinating.
G’day Folks,
Bitcoin’s current market structure has numerous similarities to both the 2019 chopsolidation, but also to cycle tops of the past. Many have argued that there are irregularities like GBTC outflows, spot ETFs, and institutional adoption which make this time different to analyse.
Is it actually different though?
The similarities between the 2024 chopsolidation, and the one we experienced back in 2019 are strange, and uncanny.
In 2019, the market ripped from $4k to $14k over three months, largely due to a spot bid from the PlusToken Ponzi in China which absorbed around 2% of the supply. The CCP then market sold those coins on Huobi, and the market chopped around until the March 2020 collapse.
In 2024, the market ripped from $40k to $73k over three months, largely due to a spot bid from the US spot ETFs, which absorbed around 5% of the supply. The US and German governments then sold around 70k BTC, and the market chopped around until the 5-August Yen Carry Trade unwind.
Seriously, it is truly bizarre how similar these events are, and this is just based on the headline events. There is even more evidence below the surface.
In today’s post, I want to assess the similarities, and the differences between the sell-side pressure Bitcoin experienced in 2019, and 2024.
As Isaac Newton would say, for every seller, there is an equal and opposite buyer, and these buyers are the ones who ultimately pour the foundation for whatever comes next.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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