Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Install Better Brakes w/ David Dredge (Rough Consensus Podcast)

Today's podcast is with David Dredge from Convex Strategies, who is an expert in understanding tail risks and the role volatility has as an asset in investor portfolios.

James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)
Dec 03, 2025
∙ Paid

G’day Folks,

As an early Christmas present for our paid subscribers, I am delighted to bring David Dredge from Convex Strategies onto the Rough Consensus podcast for a conversation about everything to do with tail-risk and volatility.

I was very fortunate to have a conversation with David around a year ago, after being introduced by my good friend Peter Dunworth. Long-term readers will know that I often call back to lessons I learned from that discussion, and I have wanted to share those insights ever since.

Given Bitcoin’s prevailing drawdown, a lot of us are questioning what we could have done better to hedge risk, and be even more prepared for the next time a downside comes over the horizon. There is no better time to bring someone like David on, who understands how tail-risks and volatility can be an asset to the portfolio, and not a liability as many in TradFi assume (are are regulated into assuming).

The topics we cover are:

  • How David thinks about tail risk and volatility as assets.

  • Tools available to investors to hedge and capitalise on unknown risks.

  • Why leverage in the TradFi system is actually the biggest risk in the system.

  • The concept of self-organising criticality in nature and markets.

  • Gold’s role in the financial system as a foundational reserve asset.

  • How the exploding IBIT options market is affecting Bitcoin market structure.

  • Why David is increasingly interested in Bitcoin now that the bankers are getting involved.

I know you’re going to enjoy this podcast, and it was such a pleasure getting to talk with David again.

If the goal is to go fast, in order to do that, you actually need to install better brakes.


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