Insider Selling & Liquidity Update (with The Bitcoin Layer)
Bitcoin twitter has found yet another narrative to explain why the Bitcoin price isn’t higher, and this time they are placing the blame on covered call sellers...to my eye, it just ain’t so.
G’day Folks,
One of my favourite one liners is how often 'we don’t see the narratives on Twitter playing out in the data’.
Everyone has an opinion on everything, creating an endless stream of catchy narratives, which get boosted by the social media algorithms. More often than than not, these algorithms tend to amplify small factors which are easy to put a label on (those dastardly whales suppressing the price!), but tend to miss the dominant factors which are usually more pedestrian, and unexciting (a lot of people sold coins).
This is why we’re very pleased to be back with another collaborative report alongside our friends at The Bitcoin Layer, to help our readers cut through the noise.
As we head into 2026, there are plenty of narratives circulating out there, which can make it hard to setup our expectations for the year that is coming. From my perspective, there are a bunch of ideas I am currently thinking through:
Bitcoin has decoupled from other risk assets…only to the downside…the US dollar index is down, gold and precious metals are up, and equities are a stones throw of their ATHs…what gives?!
The Fed rate cutting cycle continues, and they are now buying $40B in Treasury Bills per month. This should be good for liquidity right?…yet Bitcoin is still trading so weak…
Doing the narrative circuit this week, is a widely circulated piece by Jeff Park, which suggests the reason the Bitcoin price isn’t higher is because lots of OG sellers have sold covered calls on Deribit, which is effectively capping the price. Are options really the source of Bitcoins weak performance?
Is this drawdown a correction, or the start of a more serious bear market? If the latter, how low might we go, and how long could it take to resolve?
Today’s post will provide our perspectives on these topics, amongst many others. Our goal is to help our subscribers focus in on the narratives which have a strong data-driven evidence base backing them up.
2026 is already shaping up to be an interesting year, so we want to head into it as clear minded, and level headed as we can.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
Premium Members will find the video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!
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