Imagine Being Short...
Bitcoin has fallen asleep again at a price of $105k. We have seen this environment before...and Bitcoin either becomes a $105k stablecoin, or the fire is about to kick back into gear.
G’day Folks,
There have been three key events in my Bitcoin journey where I actively recognised that the Bitcoin price was…quiet…too quiet.
In late 2018 at $6k, right before my then-crypto holdings got nuked so utterly and completely, I ended up reading the Bitcoin whitepaper, and the Bitcoin Standard and became a fully converted Bitcoiner.
The Christmas break after FTX blew up, when BTC traded in a $520 range for two weeks (one of the tightest trading ranges in history).
August 2023 before we insta-dropped from $29k to $26k, at which time lots of investors panicked and locked in huge losses throughout Sept-Oct…selling right before the ETF rip to $73k.
February this year at $95k to $100k, which I documented in Time to Move, and presented a possible scenario for Bitcoin selling-off into the $75k air-pocket, but ultimately recovering.
We appear to be experiencing another one of these ‘too quiet’ periods…
The 30-day trade range is extremely tight at around 8%, and the options market appears to be pricing in an increasingly large amount of downside risk for the rest of this month.
Today’s piece will be a market update examining these dynamics, with an emphasis on the derivatives market, where a very large amount of leverage has built up over recent months.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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