How High?

The question everyone loves to ask is 'what's my Bitcoin price prediction?' Rather than pretending to know the future, I prefer to look for levels where investors are likely to start cashing in.

Q: ‘Mate, what’s your price prediction for this cycle?’

A: ‘No idea, but it will probably be when smart investors sell the most coins.’

G’day Folks,

We all want to know how high the Bitcoin price can go, and we’ve all punched our potential net worth into the calculator for when it hits $1 Million bucks.

One of the biggest unlocks for me as an investor is accepting that I have absolutely no idea how high the Bitcoin price can go, let alone when it will happen.

However, what I can say with confidence is that tops are MORE LIKELY to form when the sell-side pressure from long-term, smart-money investors is high and sustained. Therefore, my framework for thinking about how high we can go is based on where I expect investors to sell the most coin volumes, and over-saturate demand.

We’re all profit motivated creatures at some level, and when the green number in our portfolio gets very large…our natural investor instinct is to cash some of it out. Remember, even if Bitcoin trading at $120k isn’t your price, it may be someone else’s price.

In today’s post, I want to step through how I determine price levels where I expect investors to start ramping up to, and reaching their maximum sell-side pressure. I will use a combination of onchain and technical models, and pair it with a simple probability framework for assessing how high Bitcoin might go.

We can always go higher, but I at least want to know what my odds are going in.

The goal is to be prepared for WHEN (not if) the number goes up, and to be ready when we hit key price levels where I expect investors to be very profitable, and likely to take stacks of chips off the table.

At the end of the day, sell-side supply by existing holders is what overwhelms demand in a bull market, eventually (and thus creates the bear).

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📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

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