Growth Scare, or a Bear?

When the world is working through some funky market dynamics like it is today, it becomes increasingly difficult to discern between a correction and a more serious bear...We're going to try anyway.

G’day Folks,

As we know, the Bitcoin price has taken a few punches lately.

That said, for any HODLers who have been through a true bear market like we had in 2018, 2019 or 2022, it probably feels pretty mild in comparison.

One of the major challenges in markets is accepting that we just don’t know what the future holds, but we still have to make portfolio decisions. Do we buy more? Should we de-risk? Or should we do nothing at all?

In my experience, doing nothing is usually the correct decision.

When we look at the structure of broader markets, it doesn’t take long to realise Bitcoin isn’t the only one taking hits, and the -20% drawdown from ATH is almost identical to 6-of-the-7 Mag-7 stocks (Tesla has been thumped…cut in half).

The world is working through an adjustment period, as global trade relationships, and even the monetary system gets refactored to a degree.

In today’s post, I want to provide my latest thinking on whether this correction is more likely to be a correction, or the start of a more protracted bearish trend.

I will provide both the short-story from the perspective of Check the HODLer, and the longer more detailed view from Check the Analyst.

As usual, we will build on several of the previous newsletter additions, using them as a grounding for my thinking as it evolves.

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📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.

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