Downside Target Practice
As the bears lower their price targets to $40k...$30k...$20k, we're going to assess how reasonable such levels are, and whether they make sense from a market structure, and probability standpoint.
G’day Folks,
Bear markets are famous for the never ending revision of price targets lower, and lower and lower.
Folks who thought it was a bull market three weeks ago, are actively adjusting their targets down to $40k, and $30k, and $20k, depending on the mood of their favourite commentator or indicator.
How likely are those kinds of downside moves?
We all know there is no such thing as a zero probability event, but at the same time, we can make a rational judgement about whether such price levels are reasonable to expect.
Today’s study looks at this problem from both a qualitative and a quantitative standpoint, and assesses how likely such downside moves are in the context of our current bear market.
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