G’day Folks,
Without question, the question I get the most, and the one that is on all of our minds is how high can this Bitcoin cycle go?
It always feels different at the time, but everyone knows that ‘this time is different’ are the most dangerous words in finance. Yet at the same time, this Bitcoin cycle kind of feels different.
We have the spot ETFs soaking up supply, ETF options may go live tomorrow, the US political climate has markedly improved, and MicroStrategy is buying a boatload of coins every second day. With all of these demand sinks and tailwinds in front of us, it’s not hard to believe we could bust through the diminishing return theory in the coming bull run.
Is it really different though?
Paid subscribers who have been around since June will recall that I developed the confluence indicator below as a tool to identify when the mechanics of a cycle top are in play. The idea is to identify periods when the average dude is feeling extremely rich, prices are mooning, and heavy profit taking is underway.
In this report, I want to revisit this chart, and explore each of the core components to ascertain how close we might be to conditions which established cycle tops in the past.
If market conditions walk, talk, and quack like a top, it’s probably a good idea to at least take it seriously. At the very least, this methodology orients us towards how many minutes we have left in the game, or if we’re already into injury time.
Before we get into today’s piece, I wanted to share an exciting announcement:
We’re stoked to launch Checkonchain Orange, which is our new plan available on the Checkonchain Substack! This plan sits above our Paid subscription tier, and is crafted for investors seeking the ultimate edge in the Bitcoin market - delivering distilled, institutional-grade insights, and offering more direct access to James’ thinking, analysis, and strategies as the market evolves.
What’s in the Orange plan?
The plan includes everything in our Paid subscription, plus:
Institutional-Grade Bitcoin Monthly Report
Monthly Conference Call with James
Introductory Meet-and-Greet Call with James
Priority Email Access & Support
Learn more about Checkonchain Orange below:
Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!