Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Checkonchain Bitcoin Newsletter

Conviction Test

Bear markets are a gruelling process, and the majority simply do not have the conviction to see the end of the movie. The ones that do, are the ones we should be paying attention to.

James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)
Jun 10, 2026
∙ Paid

G’day Folks,

It’s a grueling process, surviving a bear market.

It’s especially hard when AI tech stocks are ripping higher, and are sucking all the capital oxygen out of the room. The parabolas envy is real, and has been a major theme in markets over the last 12 to 18-months.

As discussed in Peak Apathy, we’re at the stage of this bear market where nobody…absolutely nobody cares about Bitcoin.

At the same time, we’re starting to see some very interesting divergences in how investors are behaving. Many of these divergences were last seen around the ass-end of the prior bear cycle.

Time-pain has the effect of flushing out all the folks who don’t have the conviction to see the end of the movie.

Today’s note will be an analysis of these divergences, and my updated expectations for both the short, and medium term prospects for the orange coin.


Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (39 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 Checkonchain · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture