Bitcoin Tags The STH Cost Basis
A quick market update from my side, given we're now trading around the STH cost basis of $108.8k.
G'day Folks!
We're seeing weakness in the Bitcoin market, and interestingly, strength in the gold price. I want to quickly share a few thoughts, metrics and ideas I am keeping an eye on.
In my opinion, gold is one of the better 'predictors' of the longer term trajectory for Bitcoin. Bitcoin still has the 'risk-on' behaviour in the near-term, but ultimately, they are expressions of the same trade (fiat debasement). Where goes Gold, generally speaking, so goes Bitcoin (often with a multi-month lag).
We're testing the STH cost basis zone, and I think there is more than a 50% chance we will break below it. At a minimum, the market likes to test the resolve and pain threshold of investors. I would not be surprised it we trade down towards $100k, but this still falls within expected structure in my view.
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