A Weird Cycle
This cycle is quite weird, and it's thrown many investors off balance. Some feel Bitcoin's performance is lacklustre, others were left behind in alts, and many are missing the forest for the trees.
G’day Folks,
This cycle has been a very weird one, in that it has certainly not conformed to the expectations of a large majority of investors.
2025 is a post halving year, and therefore many anticipated an explosive parabolic third green year of the cycle 🔴🟢🟢🟢.
The US government was set for a strategic reserve, and would buy Bitcoin, sending price to the stratosphere (we’re still waiting to hear what the government proposes as a ‘budget-neutral’ buy strategy is…).
Once Bitcoin broke to new ATHs, many had positioned for a classic rotation out on the risk curve, hoping a fabled ‘alt-season’ would surely arrive.
There were also a mountain of bearish takes, where Bitcoin was little more than a ‘leveraged NASDAQ’, and the 4yr CAGR was collapsing to unattractive levels.
As usual, there is a kernel of truth to all of these narratives, but thus far, none of them have quite lined up with the reality of what 2025 has offered.
The chart below shows the yearly index performance of Bitcoin compared to equities, and specifically the best performing Magnificent-7. Both 2023 and 2024 were ripping markets across the board, with Bitcoin more than doubling in value in both years.
Thus far, 2025 has been pretty soft by comparison, opening with a nasty correction, and seeing major US equity indices trading flat to down on the year.
Bitcoin is also up only +10% from its starting point, compared to +35% at the same time last year.
One of the powerful things about data, and specifically visualisations of it, is we can more easily spot patterns and divergences to bolster or challenge our expectations. Charts and data help us sort through the endless stream of narratives, and provide a benchmark for how well they line up with reality.
In today’s post, I want to dive into a handful of dynamics which have made this cycle quite different, and quite weird. I’ll use them to rethink my own expectations for what ‘normal is’ moving forwards.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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