A Top? Or Not?
Investors are understandably worried that a cycle top has been established. Today's analysis compares the supply structure of the 2017, 2021, and 2025 peaks to identify any similarities of concern.
G’day Folks,
In what feels like the twelfth consecutive month of asking ‘is the top already in?’…we still don’t actually have a firm resolution to that question.
We have historically large selling, soft demand from the ETFs, and Treasury Companies trading 90%+ off their ATHs. And yet the price is still hanging on by a thread within the extremely dense zone of demand that exists above $95k.
In my opinion, the price level which shifts the balance in favour of the bears is $95k, which is the floor of The HODLers Wall.
We’re now at a stage where 65% of all the USD invested in Bitcoin has a cost basis above $95k, and I’d imagine if we lost that level, things will probably deteriorate quickly.
One of the super-powers of analysing Bitcoin’s onchain data is we can model out, and visualise the price levels where a dense cluster of investor cost bases are located.
Given Bitcoin has experienced several cycle tops in the past, and since we can look at the historical supply distribution, today’s post will compare and analyse current market conditions, to those we saw in the 2017, and both of the 2021 cycle tops.
The goal is to look for both similarities and differences, which may give us a hint as to which direction this chopsolidation process ultimately resolves.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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