A Full Tank of Gas

The Bitcoin spring is coiled, and chopsolidation has frustrated many investors. I want to assess how close we are to explosive volatility, as once it gets going, it is likely to be a wild ride.

G’day Folks,

Five months ago, I published Expecting Chopsolidation, which has been a foundational thesis for the newsletter ever since. The idea was that after 18-months of near-uninterrupted upside, a period of ~5 to 6-months of chopsolidation was likely required to recharge the batteries.

The Chopsolidation thesis: close your eyes for 6-months, the price will be exactly the same, but bulls and bears will have been liquidated all along to way there.

Chopsolidation is a period where the market chops wood and trades sideways after a powerful bull market advance. Chopsolidations tend to last just long enough for people to get bored, walk away, and miss the rest of the uptrend.

Sounds all too familiar.

Well, as far as I am concerned, we have now paid the piper. Our 6-month sentence has been served, and the price today ($63.2k) is almost the exact same price as it was on 8-May ($61.2k). Meanwhile, many bulls and bears have liquidated themselves, by not respecting the power of the bull-crab.

In this piece, I will review the Choppiness Index, which is is a primary indicator I use to assess whether further chopsolidation is expected. I want to assess how close we are to explosive volatility, as once it gets going, it is likely to be a wild ride.

Strap in.

Live Chart

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