A Bullish Post
Every once in a while, we’re allowed to be bullish. With Bitcoin trading above $100k once again, now is as good a time as any to look ahead, seeking to see how high we may go.
G’day Folks,
As readers will know, I generally try to keep my analysis relatively sober, and approach things from an objective data-driven perspective.
Every so often though, it feels acceptable to let your inner Bitcoin bull out.
Today, I wanted to give myself a little bit of slack, and make the assumption that Bitcoin wants to go higher. If this happens, we can use our suite of onchain tools and pricing models to identify zones which would start to signal overheated conditions.
If you can believe it, Bitcoins price performance is still running in line with the 2016-17 cycle, being up 6.2x since the $15.6k cycle low set in late 2022.
Should history end up being any sort of guide, prices above $140k would bring us up to the lower bound of the 2021 cycle, and a price of $218k would match that cycles peak return.
Truthfully, $218k doesn’t really feel that insane anymore, albeit there will be a lot more capital required to make the leap towards Bitcoin as a $4 Trillion asset class.
This newsletter edition will examine our current market conditions, and then attempt to project whether these price levels are insane, and whether we can expect enough sell-side pressure to put a lid on the bull before we get there.
With our bull market goggles on, let’s run some numbers.
📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.
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