A few weeks ago ‘it was so over’.

Today, ‘we’re so back!’

What are the odds that next week, it will once again be so over?

The Strait of Hormuz is finally open closed again, oil prices have fallen to $79 ripped back towards $90, and the US-Iran ceasefire negotiations are going very well in a state of total disarray.

Everything is going perfectly to plan a complete shitshow, and nobody knows which way is up, and which way is down.

Thank you for your attention in this matter.

Subscribers will know that we have been constructive on Bitcoin since the $60k low set on 6-Feb, when we released Welcome to Deep Value. We see this Bitcoin bear differently to a majority of the bears out there, and to no surprise, we also don’t see the same setup as the moon-math bulls.

Bitcoin traded as high as $78k over the weekend, with many patting themselves on the back for ‘calling the bottom’. The bears are calling for yet another lower high, and noting that ‘it’s just a bear flag before the 6-Oct low bro’.

In today’s post, I will share my perspective on this rally, and why I am not counting my chickens just yet. There are plenty of reasons to be constructive on the corn, but these bear market woods are thick and dense.

Rarely is a recovery this easy.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (40 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

Register Here

G’day Folks,

I’m excited to join Unchained Capital for a live presentation and Q&A on the 5th of May, supporting the next edition of The Bitcoin Checkpoint report - which will be released at the end of April (read the first edition here).

In this session, we’ll be breaking down:

• The road into the current bear market

• Analysing the capitulation phase of the bear

• How this cycle stacks up against prior bear markets

• Call-backs to key insights from the previous Checkpoint report

• The current market setup, and key metrics to watch moving forward

Session Details:

📅 Tuesday May 5, 3pm CDT / 8pm UTC
🎙️ Featuring James Check and Connor Dolan (Unchained)
💻 Register to attend below

Register Here

Hope to see you there, and we can’t wait to get the next Checkpoint report in your hands soon!

Cheers,
James

In my opinion, assets have not traded in line with how analysts expected throughout the Iran conflict. Oil prices spiked, but failed to clear the 2022 highs. The US dollar index jumped to ~100…but has since been slammed back down its lower post-2008 trend-line. Equities pulled back from the highs, but this was anything but a collapse.

Bitcoin, being one of the most liquidity sensitive assets, is trading around 15% higher than it was when the war broke out, which isn’t how many expected it to play out.

In this conversation, Nik and I share our honest market views, run through a variety of Bitcoin and macro charts, and we had a lot of fun doing so.

Note: We are testing the Substack Video post format for this edition, which lets Premium subscribers watch the full video within the Substack app. If you have any feedback about this feature, please let us know in the comments. The YouTube video will be added as usual below in the article.

Additionally, we’ve enabled a 10 minute video preview for non-paying subscribers, to get a taste of the session.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s full Video Discussion (1hr) and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

‘Bitcoins performance sucks bro, CAGR is collapsing, and it’s the same price as it was in 2021, dead asset’ - Reply Guy who went all-in at the 2021 top.

G’day Folks,

How many times have you seen remarks like this out in the wild?

I always find it interesting to think about, and evaluate these claims. I totally understand where the frustration comes from, especially once the bear market rips off the rose-tinted glasses.

However, when I think about my own Bitcoin experience, reflect on my buying decisions, and run the performance numbers myself, it seems to me as if those reply guys might benefit from doing a similar exercise.

Naturally, it is much easier to blame market manipulators, price suppressors, shadowy cabals, and even the asset itself for poor performance. This is the approach many inexperienced investors tend to default to.

The more likely reality, is that their expectations for the market being a personal cash ATM didn’t play out as planned, and the result was their decisions of when to buy (and how much) were highly sub-optimal.

Opining about Bitcoin’s declining compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a reply-guy favourite, as predictions of it allow them to extrapolate how rich (or poor) they WILL be 5 to 10yrs in the future.

As is tradition, bear markets are predicted to go on forever when you’re already deep into one, and bulls have no ceiling, as measured during the run-up.

In today’s piece, I want to share my perspective on why I believe CAGR is a busted and misleading metric. I will then show you how I think about Bitcoin’s future growth potential, and try to re-frame in a more sensible, grounded, and measured way.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (30 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

It has been an eventful week, with markets trying to price in a de-escalation of the US-Iran war…followed by re-escalation…and then de-escalation…it all depends on which hour it is then you check the news.

Bitcoin has been in chopsolidation mode throughout the entire process, with prices going absolutely nowhere, irrespective of the headlines that surface.

As of this morning, the corn is hovering around $72k, which is nearing the top of the trade range, and is starting to look like it may want a run higher towards the $80ks.

Today’s post will be a breakdown of the market conditions as I see them, and with a particular focus on the point of seller exhaustion.

I will discuss my current bear market thesis in full detail, and document the fundamental reasons why we may, or may not have reached genuine seller exhaustion.

This matters, because when there is nobody left to sell, the market only has one way to go.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (28 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

What is onchain analysis at the most fundamental level?

The technical description, is that it’s the analysis of how the database of the Bitcoin supply and transactions evolves over time. We analyse coins, holding times, and the profit and loss investors lock in over time.

At a more philosophical level, it is the study of people acting in markets, and a study of the decisions we collectively make that pertain to Bitcoin.

No matter who you are, every decision to buy, sell, hold, or wait is influenced by your desire to achieve some goal in your life. It could be to save money, to swing trade, to transfer value, or to hedge the failure risk of fiat currency itself.

Bitcoin is an immutable database of those decisions, and more deeply, a record of the emotional and mental logic that went into making those decisions.

At this stage in the 2026 Bitcoin bear market, half of the supply is underwater, 80% of the capital was invested at higher prices, and the world around us is in a state of disarray, conflict and major uncertainty.

By the time we get into the later stages of a Bitcoin bear, the tourists are nowhere to be found, and the only investors who remain, are the ones who know what they own, and why they own it.

Today’s piece is going to be an analysis of late stage Bitcoin bear markets, and a reflection on how our current conditions are tracking relative to 2018 and 2022.

I will also explore why late stage bear markets are very unique from an onchain perspective, and how we must think about several metrics in the opposite way to how many of us are conditioned.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (38 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

We had a great call today, covering key slides from our latest Bitcoin Monthly Report for January. Big thanks to all the attendees and those who raised their hands to participate in the session, we highly value your input!

Read more

Thank you once again for another amazing batch of questions this month! As usual, we tried to get through as many as possible in this ~1 hour video session, focused on the topics which had the most interest and up-votes.

In this session, we covered a wide range of Bitcoin, macro, mining, quantum computing, and market cycle questions, including:

• Deep dive into Bitcoin mining costs and difficulty regression model

• Post-bottom price recovery scenarios and cycle analysis

• How geopolitical developments and macro conditions are influencing Bitcoin and other assets

• Could breaking below 60k lead to a bottom in the mid 50s?

• Why mining’s role in energy infrastructure has broader macro implications

• What the Google Quantum report means for cryptography and Bitcoin’s long-term security

• Whether now is the right time to stack Gold

• What signals to watch at market tops

• How James thinks about re-entering his MicroStrategy (MSTR) position

• Update on the new Checkonchain charting platform

Premium Members will find the full Q&A video below (~1hr). Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the the content!

Read more

The month of March was a prime example of the Fourth Turning in action.

Rome is once again at war with the Persian empire, energy prices are back in demand destruction territory, and the knock-on effects of the conflict are unlikely to be properly priced in.

Given this backdrop, the resilience of Bitcoin is remarkable, surprising, and something warranting deeper investigation.

This month’s Checkonchain Orange report is titled No Shortage of Risks, and is an exploration of why Bitcoin is holding up far better than most analysts expected.

I approach the problem using data sourced from all of the key market sectors, to establish a consistent and coherent framework for thinking about the Bitcoin market setup.

Orange Members will find the report PDF, and details of our upcoming monthly conference call below.

Read more

Welcome to the March edition of our Q&A, where Premium subscribers can ask (and upvote) questions about the Bitcoin market, onchain analysis, and broader macro themes. We will record and publish the Q&A session later this week!

🔍 How To Ask Your Question

Read more

We’re sailing through stormy seas out there, with oil prices back above $100, equities opening in the red, and Bitcoin trading below $65k as of (Aussie) Monday morning.

There isn’t much value in sugar coating it, as the world is in a very tricky spot, and the odds that conditions improve before they get worse…are not great.

Lyn does a great job summarising the current setup, and there is little in my own research to suggest she isn’t wrong.

In my view, markets are desperately clinging onto the hope that President Trump pulls a TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), and Iran’s IRGC are equally interested in Mexican cuisine.

Even if we do get a double TACO, the pig of this energy shock and supply chain disruption is already well inside the python; and it will take several months of digestion before we approach anything resembling equilibrium.

In this piece, I will continue assessing how I see Bitcoin performing through this process, with a particular focus on where the likely ‘time-pain’ capitulation may find its ultimate low.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (40 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

We’re well overdue for a comprehensive market update, where I analyse all the Bitcoin market sectors, and piece together a cohesive story, as I see it.

In this update, I will cover:

• The geopolitical backdrop given recent de-escalation attempts.

• Pricing models and mean reversion probabilities.

• Status of bottom formation signals across onchain metrics.

• Investor behaviour patterns in ETF and spot markets.

• What leveraged players are doing in futures and options markets.

Let’s get stuck into the data!

Read more

If you can’t debate the other team’s case, you are considerably more likely to miss holes in your own arguments. It is one of the more effective ways at firming up your ideas, and testing it against a world of other opinions.

Long-term subscribers will know that I like to undertake these Devil’s Advocate studies around major market inflection points, with the last two being in Oct-2024 and May-2025.

Those two prior studies were performed during a primary bull trend, and were looking for signs of weakening structure, and I tried to argue the bear case for why further upside may not be on the cards.

Given we’re now in a primary bear trend, with a rapidly deteriorating geopolitical and macroeconomic environment, it felt like the next Devil’s Advocate edition was overdue.

Today, I will be arguing the other side, and countering my prevailing thesis of bear market bottom formation already underway.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (46 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

We have been very busy over at Checkonchain HQ, and today’s post is packed full of material to keep subscribers busy this weekend.

First and foremost, we’re back with our friends at The Bitcoin Layer with a new series format, being a one-on-one conversation between Nik Bhatia and myself.

This conversation is split in two halves:

• Macro market update led by Nik, covering liquidity conditions, the impact of the US-Iran war, oil and US dollar strength, and all the knock on impacts that has for risk assets.

• Bitcoin onchain assessment by James, where I synthesise my current market thesis around bear market bottoms, capitulation events, and what it will take to put a resilient floor in place.

Nik and I iterate on our respective ideas, expertise, and thesis with questions and answers, which we believe brings out the best discussion and analysis material for our subscribers.

I was also recently on a few podcasts and livestreams which I really enjoyed, and gave me a chance to get my onchain nerd out for both a 101 session, but also for a deep dark details discussion as well. Subscribers will find links to both below.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Discussion (1hr) and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

Thanks to everyone who joined our Checkonchain x Monochrome webinar today on Finding Opportunity in the Bitcoin Bear Market.

If you weren’t able to attend live, you can watch the full recording below.

Watch Recording Here

During the session we covered:

• Bear market floor levels and historical context

• Insights from long vs short-term holder cohorts

• Capital rotation across the Bitcoin market

• Derivatives and ETF market dynamics

• A live audience Q&A

A big thanks to Grayson and the team at Monochrome for another fantastic session!

Cheers,
Alec from Checkonchain

Markets have a special way of confusing even the brightest of people.

They often do the opposite of what people expect, and then we collectively assign a new narrative to the weirdness to help our simple minds explain why afterwards.

The last six months have been rough for Bitcoin investors, and euphoric for holders of almost every other asset class. Bitcoin prices were cut in half, whilst everything else hit almost daily all-time-highs.

Oil is trading a stones throw off $100, the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed, the US dollar is rallying, cracks are appearing in private credit markets, and equities have taken a meaningful -5% to -7% tumble from the highs.

This is the combination you’d expect to see early in a ‘risk-off’ environment, and Bitcoin usually takes yet another gut-punch under these conditions.

And yet here we are, with Bitcoin trading up +5% over the last month, and experiencing a brief patch of inverse correlation relative to gold and equities.

Today’s post will be a study of why this may be the case, and my read on why Bitcoin appears to be the fittest player on the pitch right now.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (40 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

I’ve mentioned in the past that I deleted X from my phone several months back (which I highly recommend doing). As a result, I only scan my feed briefly every couple of days, and this has given me an interesting lens into how quickly narratives shift.

Two weeks ago quantum computing would kill Bitcoin. Last week, Jane street was manipulating Bitcoin. Neither of these narratives were anywhere to be found this morning.

This week, one of the hot new topics is doom-merchants pointing to the second bear flag in 2022, deeming it the same, and suggesting Bitcoin is due another trip lower to visit Hades below $40k.

Today’s report will be an assessment of where this fractal may be a fair comparison, and where it diverges from today’s structure. I will also include my current assessment of Strategy (MSTR), as many have asked me when I will be allocating my second tranche, and I’d like to explore conditions which would have me doing so.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (37 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

We live in interesting times, don’t we?

If you’re a macro-enthusiast like me, you have probably been glued to the screens trying to get your head around what is going on in the Middle East, and the knock on consequences of it.

We’re living through a very serious, and very real geopolitical game of chess, in which the opening position has developed over several decades. The opening moves have been played, and there is no shortage of tension in the position...

…ten moves later, and the board will be a completely different place, and one player generally has a very clear advantage.

Today’s piece is going to be a collection of my current thoughts regarding the unfolding situation, and an assessment of the potential impact it has on my prevailing Bitcoin thesis.

We live in uncertain times, and we must constantly adapt as new information comes to light.

Let’s get straight into it.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (37 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more

Bitcoin just ripped back above $73k, leaving the deep value price range.

The question is: will the bulls take the upper hand, or is this rally destined to fade like all the others in a bear?

In this video-only post, we examine BTC’s rally from both an onchain and derivatives perspective to assess what the data says. Let’s dive in.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Flash Video Update.

Read more

The spot Bitcoin ETFs have been a defining feature of this market since they launched in 2024.

For some time now, I have referred to them as the extraordinary ETFs, primarily due to the remarkable consistency, and magnitude of inflows relative to outflow volumes.

Today, the Bitcoin ETFs are currently experiencing their most significant period of sustained outflows since inception, with a total of $11.3B exiting these vehicles since the ATH in October.

We have also seen the size of the IBIT options market balloon over the last 12-months, with open interest now sitting at 50% of the underlying IBIT ETF asset base.

In today’s post, I will analyse the current performance of the spot ETFs, and associated derivatives markets.

We’re going to see if my original read on the ETFs as ‘extraordinary’ still holds, and dive into the impact Paper Bitcoin derivatives have in influencing the spot Bitcoin markets.

Become a Premium subscriber to access today’s Video Update (35 mins), Written Article and TL;DR Summary.

Read more